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         article-type="Research Paper"
         xml:lang="en">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Indian Journal of Social Enquiry</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">IJSE</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">applied</issn>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">0974-9012</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Prof Gitanjali Chawla</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">IJSE2180005</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Manufacturing State Advantage Under GST: Evidence from Gujarat’s Fiscal Trajectory (2008–2025)</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Singh</surname>
            <given-names>Ajad</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Kumar</surname>
            <given-names>Rakesh</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Shukla</surname>
            <given-names>Saumya</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff1">Maharaja Agrasen College, University of Delhi</aff>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub" iso-8601-date="2026-09-03">
        <month>09</month>
        <day>03</day>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>18</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>84</fpage>
      <lpage>101</lpage>
      <abstract>
        <p>This paper examines the examines the fiscal impact of Goods and Services Tax
(GST) in Gujarat which is a strong base of manufacturing activities. The paper
covers the time period from 2008–09 to 2024–25 and uses an Interrupted
Time Series model with Newey-West HAC standard errors. The paper finds
evidence of persistent but moderate fiscal deceleration post-GST. During the
study period, revenue growth decelerated by 4.0 percentage points annually and
expenditure by 3.2 points. Chow test confirms structural breaks for both revenue
and expenditure. Though the revenue CAGR had declined from 13.94% preGST to 9.29% post-GST, SGST achieved remarkable 18.05% CAGR compared
to pre-GST Sales Tax at 13.51%. A decline in fiscal Autonomy Index was also
registered during the study period from 66.1% to 60.3%, which can be attributed
to increased transfer dependence from the centre. Developmental expenditure share had remained stable, while the interest burden declined from 17.9%
to 15.5%. Revenue buoyancy improved from 1.01 to 1.22, the highest among
major states. Findings reveal a manufacturing state paradox: destination-based
GST created initial revenue losses requiring large compensation, yet improved
buoyancy. It suggests long-term SGST potential exceeds pre-GST Sales Tax/
VAT performance.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group kwd-group-type="author">
        <kwd>GST</kwd>
        <kwd>Fiscal federalism</kwd>
        <kwd>Manufacturing states</kwd>
        <kwd>Time series</kwd>
        <kwd>Gujarat</kwd>
        <kwd>Revenue buoyancy</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
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