Saumya Shukla

This paper examines the examines the fiscal impact of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in Gujarat which is a strong base of manufacturing activities. The paper covers the time period from 2008–09 to 2024–25 and uses an Interrupted Time Series model with Newey-West HAC standard errors. The paper finds evidence of persistent but moderate fiscal deceleration post-GST. During the study period, revenue growth decelerated by 4.0 percentage points annually and expenditure by 3.2 points. Chow test confirms structural breaks for both revenue and expenditure. Though the revenue CAGR had declined from 13.94% preGST to 9.29% post-GST, SGST achieved remarkable 18.05% CAGR compared to pre-GST Sales Tax at 13.51%. A decline in fiscal Autonomy Index was also registered during the study period from 66.1% to 60.3%, which can be attributed to increased transfer dependence from the centre. Developmental expenditure share had remained stable, while the interest burden declined from 17.9% to 15.5%. Revenue buoyancy improved from 1.01 to 1.22, the highest among major states. Findings reveal a manufacturing state paradox: destination-based GST created initial revenue losses requiring large compensation, yet improved buoyancy. It suggests long-term SGST potential exceeds pre-GST Sales Tax/ VAT performance.

Globalization has played a significant role in shaping the modern world by promoting international trade, economic integration, technological exchange, and cross border cooperation. However, the contemporary global economic system is undergoing substantial transformation as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, protectionist policies, and the COVID 19 pandemic challenge the assumptions underlying unrestricted global integration. This article examines the changing character of globalization and its implications for India. It argues that globalization has not disappeared but is evolving toward a more cautious and regionally oriented framework in which nations increasingly prioritize economic security, domestic capabilities, and diversified international partnerships. The growing use of tariffs, subsidies, and measures aimed at reducing import dependence reflects a shift from cost efficiency toward resilience and self sufficiency. For India, these developments create significant challenges because fluctuations in global energy prices, exchange rates, inflation, and international demand directly affect domestic economic conditions. At the same time, the changing global environment provides opportunities for India to strengthen its manufacturing and service sectors, diversify supply chains, deepen relations with different regions, and maintain strategic independence in foreign economic relations. The article further highlights the continuing expansion of digital globalization, through the movement of data, services, and online employment across national boundaries. It concludes that the future of globalization is likely to be characterized by multiple interconnected regional systems rather than complete global integration, requiring India to balance domestic resilience with international engagement.

The global trading system has undergone significant transformations in response to economic shocks, trade tensions, and changing patterns of international economic relations. This article examines India’s economic resilience in the context of recent global trade disruptions, with particular attention to the tariff measures imposed by the United States in 2025 and their implications for Indian industries. It traces the evolution from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to the establishment of the World Trade Organization and discusses the opportunities and vulnerabilities created by increasing global economic interdependence. The analysis highlights the impact of higher tariffs on Indian sectors such as gems and jewellery, leather, footwear, marine products, chemicals, and automobile components, while also noting the relative protection provided to pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, energy resources, and critical minerals. The article further evaluates the contribution of initiatives including Make in India, Skill India, Production Linked Incentive schemes, and Atmanirbhar Bharat in strengthening domestic manufacturing, employment, investment, and supply chain resilience. These measures have encouraged local production, attracted investment, supported small and medium enterprises, and reduced dependence on imported goods in selected strategic sectors. The article argues that a balanced policy approach combining economic self reliance with market diversification and international trade engagement can improve India’s capacity to withstand external economic shocks. Strengthening domestic capabilities while maintaining diversified international partnerships may therefore provide a sustainable foundation for India’s long term economic growth and global competitiveness.